रोजगार सृजन की गति भी बढ़नी चाहिए
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कुछ दिन पहले जेनेवा स्थित अंतरराष्ट्रीय श्रम संगठन और दिल्ली स्थित इंस्टिट्यूट फॉर ह्यूमन डेवलपमेंट ने संयुक्त रूप से ‘इंडिया एमंप्लॉयमेंट रिपोर्ट 2024’ प्रकाशित किया है। तीन सौ पन्नों की यह सारगर्भित रिपोर्ट भारत में श्रम एवं रोजगार के संबंध में इन दोनों संस्थानों द्वारा प्रकाशित तीसरी बड़ी रिपोर्ट है। इन संस्थाओं ने 2014 में श्रम एवं वैश्वीकरण तथा 2016 में विनिर्माण में रोजगार नीत वृद्धि पर रिपोर्ट का प्रकाशन किया था। हालिया रिपोर्ट में 2000 के बाद की दो दशक से अधिक की अवधि के आंकड़ों को प्रस्तुत किया गया है, जिनमें से अधिकांश सरकारी स्रोतों से लिए गये हैं। साल 2018 से पहले आंकड़ों का मुख्य स्रोत रोजगार की स्थिति पर होने वाला पंचवर्षीय सर्वेक्षण था। उसके बाद तीन माह पर आने वाला श्रम बल सर्वेक्षण स्रोत बन गया। ये आंकड़े सभी शोध करने वालों को उपलब्ध हैं और वर्तमान रिपोर्ट में इनका गहन विश्लेषण किया गया है।
रिपोर्ट के मुख्य निष्कर्षों पर चर्चा से पहले परिभाषाओं को याद रखना महत्वपूर्ण है। श्रम बल भागीदारी दर का अर्थ कामकाजी आबादी (15 साल से अधिक आयु के लोग) के वे लोग हैं, जो कार्यरत हैं या काम की तलाश में हैं। उल्लेखनीय है कि भारत की आबादी की वृद्धि दर घटकर हर साल 0।8 प्रतिशत हो गयी है, पर श्रम बल अभी भी सालाना दो प्रतिशत से अधिक दर से बढ़ रहा है। पहले इस वृद्धि से हम देखते हैं कि बीते दो दशकों में श्रम बल भागीदारी दर की स्थिति क्या रही है। कामगार भागीदारी अनुपात कामकाजी आयु के उन लोगों का अनुपात है, जो कार्यरत हैं। शेष बेरोजगार हैं और इसलिए बेरोजगारी दर श्रम बल का वह हिस्सा है, जिसके पास काम नहीं है और वह काम की तलाश में है।
निष्कर्षों में इस दीर्घकालिक रुझान को रेखांकित किया गया है कि 2019 तक भागीदारी दर, भागीदारी अनुपात और बेरोजगारी दर उलटी दिशा में अग्रसर थे। भागीदारी दर गिर रही थी और बेरोजगारी दर बढ़ रही थी। यह निराशाजनक है क्योंकि इसका मतलब है कि बढ़ती अर्थव्यवस्था रोजगार सृजन नहीं कर रही है। साल 2000-12 के बीच अर्थव्यवस्था हर साल 6।2 प्रतिशत की दर से बढ़ी, पर नौकरियां मात्र 1।6 प्रतिशत की दर से ही बढ़ीं। साल 2012-19 के बीच तो स्थिति और खराब हो गयी, जब औसत आर्थिक वृद्धि दर 6।7 प्रतिशत थी, पर रोजगार वृद्धि दर केवल 0।1 प्रतिशत रही। यह ‘जॉबलेस ग्रोथ’ का ठोस मामला है। इसका अर्थ यह है कि प्रति कामगार आर्थिक उत्पादकता बढ़ रही है, जिससे अतिरिक्त कामगार की जरूरत नहीं रह जाती। इसका यह भी मतलब है कि आर्थिक वृद्धि का मुख्य आधार पूंजी है और प्रति कामगार अधिक मशीनों का उपयोग हो रहा है। यह सबसे अधिक विनिर्माण क्षेत्र में है। इस क्षेत्र में 2000-19 की अवधि में रोजगार वृद्धि मात्र 1।7 प्रतिशत सालाना रही, जबकि उत्पादन में 7।5 फीसदी बढ़ोतरी हुई। सेवा क्षेत्र में रोजगार वृद्धि लगभग तीन प्रतिशत रही। इस अवधि में कंस्ट्रक्शन के काम में अच्छी बढ़त हुई।
वृद्धि प्रक्रिया से अपेक्षा रहती है कि वह कृषि क्षेत्र के अतिरिक्त श्रम को विनिर्माण एवं सेवा क्षेत्र में लाये। इसे अर्थव्यवस्था में संरचनात्मक परिवर्तन कहा जाता है। इसमें बढ़ता निर्यात भी सहयोगी हो सकता है। जीडीपी में 1984 में वस्तुओं और सेवा के निर्यात का हिस्सा केवल 6।3 प्रतिशत था, जो 2022 में 22 प्रतिशत हो गया। वैश्विक बाजार में अवसर बढ़ने से भारत में रोजगार बढ़ना चाहिए था, अगर श्रम आधारित निर्यात पर ध्यान दिया जाता। निर्यात आधारित वृद्धि को पूर्वी एशिया के अधिकांश देशों में देख सकते हैं, जहां पांच दशक पहले यह जापान में शुरू हुई और वियतनाम जैसे देशों में अभी भी चल रही है। भारत ने वह अवसर खो दिया, पहले निर्यात को लेकर निराशावाद रहा और बाद में वैश्विक मूल्य शृंखला में शामिल होने से हिचक रही। यह स्थिति बदल सकती है। लेकिन अब नयी चुनौतियां हैं, जैसे भू-राजनीतिक कारणों से व्यापार बाधाओं का बढ़ना तथा ऑटोमेशन के चलते नौकरियों पर संकट।
विनिर्माण में दो दशकों से रोजगार कुल श्रम बल के 12-14 प्रतिशत पर अटका हुआ है। इसके कई कारण हैं, जिनमें एक यह है कि इस क्षेत्र में पूंजी की सघनता को लेकर झुकाव है। लेकिन एक बड़ी समस्या है कौशल का अभाव। शिक्षा क्षेत्र उम्मीद पर खरा नहीं उतर रहा है क्योंकि जो छात्र स्कूल-कॉलेज से निकल रहे हैं, वे रोजगार योग्य नहीं हैं। इसलिए अचरज की बात नहीं है कि बड़ी संख्या में युवा बेरोजगार हैं। युवाओं में, 34 साल से कम आयु के, बेरोजगारी 83 प्रतिशत के स्तर पर है। इस आयु के बाद नौकरी पाने की संभावना नाटकीय ढंग से बढ़ जाती है, भले ही वेतन अच्छा न हो। आबादी में युवाओं का हिस्सा 27 प्रतिशत है और आयु बढ़ने के साथ यह संख्या 2036 तक 23 प्रतिशत रह जायेगी। चूंकि कॉलेजों में नामांकन दर बढ़ रही है, तो वे युवा श्रम बल का हिस्सा नहीं होंगे, जिसके कारण श्रम बल में भागीदारी दर कम हो सकती है।
लेकिन युवा बेरोजगारी एक कठिन चुनौती बनी हुई है। यह दो दशकों में 5।7 प्रतिशत से बढ़कर 2019 में 17।5 प्रतिशत हो गयी और 2022 में घटकर 12।1 प्रतिशत हो गयी। इस समस्या का सीधा संबंध शिक्षा से है। साल 2022 में लिख या पढ़ नहीं पाने वाले युवाओं में बेरोजगारी दर 3।4, माध्यमिक या उससे अधिक शिक्षा पाये युवाओं में 18।4 और स्नातकों में 29।1 प्रतिशत थी। यह देश में अब तक की सबसे अधिक शिक्षित युवा बेरोजगारी है। विभिन्न कारकों में मुख्य कारक है कि कौशल विकास और व्यावसायिक प्रशिक्षण का अभाव। यह हमारे शिक्षण एवं कौशल प्रशिक्षण के संस्थानों की असफलता है। यह समय है कि अप्रेंटिसशिप कार्यक्रमों को तीव्रता से आगे बढ़ाया जाए, जो देश में कहीं भी उपलब्ध कराये जा सकते हैं। इस कार्यक्रम में ऐसे प्रशिक्षण का अवसर देने वालों पर कामगार को स्थायी काम देने के लिए दबाव नहीं बनाना चाहिए। इस रिपोर्ट में उपयोगी विश्लेषण के साथ-साथ नीति-निर्धारकों के लिए सुझाव भी दिये गये हैं। नीति को लेकर मुख्य सुझाव है कि न केवल निर्यात या उत्पादन के मूल्य के आधार पर, बल्कि अधिक रोजगार पैदा करने वाले निवेशों को भी प्रोत्साहन दिया जाए। साथ ही, राष्ट्रीय शिक्षा नीति 2020 के तहत रोजगार क्षमता, कौशल विकास, रोजगारदाताओं के साथ सहभागिता तथा अनुभवजन्य शिक्षण पर ध्यान केंद्रित करना चाहिए। अगला दशक भारत के मानवीय पूंजी को बढ़ाने में निवेश करने का दशक होना चाहिए।
( कुलपति केंद्रीय जनजातीय विश्वविद्यालय, आंध्र प्रदेश)
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